Polls
Labour and National are neck and neck in the polls, on 28.2% and 27.8%.
128 polls since the 2023 election. The latest finished on 19 Oct 2026 (The Post/Freshwater Strategy).
The polling average
Each dot is one poll. The line is our average of all of them, which allows for some pollsters running a little high or low for a party. Tap a party to hide or show it. Dashed lines mark debates and other events.
Left, centre and right
Together the right's parties are on 47.8% and the left's on 44.3%, with Opportunity in the centre on 6.2%. Neither side has half the vote on its own.
Left is Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori. Right is National, ACT, NZ First.
Every poll
Party vote, in percent. Select a column heading to sort. A dash means the poll didn't report that party.
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 19 Oct 2026 | 1,458 | 27.6 | 28.7 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 News–Verian | 12 Oct 2026 | 1,007 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 14.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 1.6 |
| Anacta | 10 Oct 2026 | 1,352 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 5 Oct 2026 | 1,000 | 28.5 | 28.2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| 1 News–Verian | 5 Oct 2026 | 1,001 | 28.9 | 27.9 | 15.9 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 0.8 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 1 Oct 2026 | 1,000 | 26.1 | 31.0 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 News–Verian | 27 Sept 2026 | 1,004 | 27.9 | 27.9 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| Roy Morgan | 27 Sept 2026 | 859 | 31.0 | 23.5 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 11 Sept 2026 | 1,011 | 26.7 | 27.7 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 12.9 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 |
| Anacta | 10 Sept 2026 | 1,701 | 30.0 | 31.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 3 Sept 2026 | 1,000 | 29.0 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 5.9 |
| Roy Morgan | 23 Aug 2026 | 858 | 31.0 | 24.0 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 21 Aug 2026 | 1,000 | 29.1 | 32.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 News–Verian | 11 Aug 2026 | 847 | 29.1 | 30.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 2.7 |
| Talbot Mills | 11 Aug 2026 | – | 29.0 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 0.8 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 4 Aug 2026 | 1,000 | 32.6 | 29.2 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 Jul 2026 | 881 | 32.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 19 Jul 2026 | – | 31.0 | 33.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 0.3 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 9 Jul 2026 | 1,000 | 28.7 | 34.0 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 5 Jul 2026 | 1,000 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Roy Morgan | 21 Jun 2026 | 891 | 31.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 17 Jun 2026 | 1,001 | 29.3 | 32.4 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 11 Jun 2026 | 1,038 | 29.3 | 35.4 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 2.0 | – | 3.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Jun 2026 | 1,021 | 29.0 | 34.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.1 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 8 Jun 2026 | 1,000 | 30.1 | 32.2 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Roy Morgan | 24 May 2026 | 870 | 30.5 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 May 2026 | – | 29.0 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | – | 3.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 7 May 2026 | 1,000 | 30.0 | 31.9 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 Apr 2026 | 887 | 25.5 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| Talbot Mills | 16 Apr 2026 | 1,082 | 29.0 | 36.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 News–Verian | 15 Apr 2026 | 1,010 | 29.7 | 36.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 2 Apr 2026 | 1,000 | 29.8 | 33.4 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Roy Morgan | 22 Mar 2026 | 872 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 20 Mar 2026 | 1,000 | 30.8 | 35.6 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Talbot Mills | 12 Mar 2026 | 1,059 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 3 Mar 2026 | 1,000 | 28.4 | 34.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 4.3 |
| Roy Morgan | 22 Feb 2026 | 870 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 12 Feb 2026 | 1,039 | 30.3 | 37.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 2.0 | – | 3.0 |
| 1 News–Verian | 11 Feb 2026 | 1,003 | 33.8 | 31.8 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 3 Feb 2026 | 1,000 | 30.9 | 33.6 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 Jan 2026 | 881 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Talbot Mills | 26 Jan 2026 | 1,087 | 31.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | – | 4.0 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 22 Jan 2026 | 1,000 | 31.9 | 35.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 18 Jan 2026 | 1,000 | 31.5 | 34.4 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| Roy Morgan | 21 Dec 2025 | 859 | 33.0 | 32.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 10 Dec 2025 | 1,031 | 30.3 | 38.4 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 2.0 | – | 4.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 7 Dec 2025 | 1,000 | 30.0 | 31.6 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 6.0 |
| 1 News–Verian | 3 Dec 2025 | 1,007 | 35.9 | 34.9 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Roy Morgan | 23 Nov 2025 | 829 | 33.0 | 28.0 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Nov 2025 | 1,000 | 33.0 | 38.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 2.4 | – | 2.6 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 6 Nov 2025 | 1,000 | 30.2 | 33.3 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 Oct 2025 | 857 | 32.0 | 30.5 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Oct 2025 | 1,097 | 29.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | – | 2.0 |
| 1 News–Verian | 8 Oct 2025 | 1,014 | 34.0 | 32.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 8 Oct 2025 | 1,050 | 31.3 | 34.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 3.0 | – | 2.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 5 Oct 2025 | 1,000 | 29.6 | 31.2 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
| Roy Morgan | 21 Sept 2025 | 870 | 31.5 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 12 Sept 2025 | 1,000 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Sept 2025 | 1,000 | 31.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | – | 3.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 2 Sept 2025 | 1,000 | 33.1 | 33.8 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Roy Morgan | 24 Aug 2025 | 873 | 29.0 | 34.0 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Aug 2025 | 1,000 | 31.5 | 33.5 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 1 News–Verian | 6 Aug 2025 | 1,002 | 34.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 5 Aug 2025 | 1,000 | 31.8 | 33.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Roy Morgan | 27 Jul 2025 | 832 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Jul 2025 | 1,090 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.8 | – | 2.2 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 6 Jul 2025 | 1,000 | 33.9 | 31.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Roy Morgan | 22 Jun 2025 | 812 | 32.0 | 28.5 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 15 Jun 2025 | 1,150 | 32.3 | 34.3 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 2.0 | – | 4.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 9 Jun 2025 | 1,000 | 33.5 | 34.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 30 May 2025 | 1,008 | 30.7 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 News–Verian | 28 May 2025 | 1,002 | 34.0 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Roy Morgan | 25 May 2025 | 799 | 31.5 | 29.0 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 4 May 2025 | 1,000 | 34.6 | 33.2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Roy Morgan | 20 Apr 2025 | 829 | 31.0 | 28.5 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 2 Apr 2025 | 1,000 | 35.7 | 31.7 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1 Apr 2025 | 1,000 | 33.9 | 30.1 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 27 Mar 2025 | 1,000 | 32.9 | 32.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Roy Morgan | 23 Mar 2025 | 888 | 32.5 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Mar 2025 | 1,003 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 4.4 | – | 4.5 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 4 Mar 2025 | 1,000 | 33.6 | 34.1 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Roy Morgan | 23 Feb 2025 | 888 | 30.5 | 29.0 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 7 Feb 2025 | 1,002 | 33.9 | 32.9 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 4 Feb 2025 | 1,000 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Talbot Mills | 27 Jan 2025 | 1,049 | 33.0 | 34.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | – | 2.2 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 Jan 2025 | 885 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 13 Jan 2025 | 1,000 | 29.6 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Roy Morgan | 15 Dec 2024 | 885 | 31.0 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 4 Dec 2024 | 1,006 | 36.8 | 28.9 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 3 Dec 2024 | 1,000 | 35.4 | 27.8 | 8.6 | 13.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Labour–Talbot Mills | 28 Nov 2024 | – | 31.0 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | – | 4.0 |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 27 Nov 2024 | 1,150 | 34.0 | 31.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | – | 4.0 |
| Roy Morgan | 24 Nov 2024 | 866 | 28.5 | 28.0 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 10 Nov 2024 | 1,000 | 38.8 | 31.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Nov 2024 | – | 34.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | – | 2.7 |
| Roy Morgan | 20 Oct 2024 | 883 | 31.0 | 29.0 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| 1 News–Verian | 9 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 37.1 | 29.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 7 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 34.9 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Roy Morgan | 22 Sept 2024 | 902 | 37.5 | 23.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 10 Sept 2024 | 1,000 | 38.7 | 26.5 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Sept 2024 | – | 37.0 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.9 | – | 3.0 |
| Roy Morgan | 25 Aug 2024 | 898 | 36.0 | 26.5 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 14 Aug 2024 | 1,001 | 38.0 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| Roy Morgan | 21 Jul 2024 | 930 | 32.5 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 8 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Roy Morgan | 23 Jun 2024 | 930 | 35.0 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 19 Jun 2024 | 1,002 | 38.0 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 6 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Roy Morgan | 19 May 2024 | 925 | 33.5 | 30.0 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 May 2024 | – | 35.0 | 32.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 33.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 7 May 2024 | 1,000 | 37.3 | 30.0 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Labour–Talbot Mills | 30 Apr 2024 | – | 34.0 | 33.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | – | 4.0 |
| 1 News–Verian | 24 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 36.1 | 30.1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Roy Morgan | 21 Apr 2024 | 934 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 4 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| Roy Morgan | 24 Mar 2024 | 931 | 38.2 | 23.1 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Mar 2024 | – | 38.0 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | – | – | 6.0 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 5 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4.0 |
| Roy Morgan | 25 Feb 2024 | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 News–Verian | 14 Feb 2024 | 1,002 | 37.9 | 27.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Talbot Mills | 10 Feb 2024 | – | 38.0 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 7 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 5.0 | 2.3 | – | 2.5 |
| Roy Morgan | 28 Jan 2024 | 947 | 38.0 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| Curia | 10 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 41.0 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | 4.1 |
| Roy Morgan | 17 Dec 2023 | 947 | 36.0 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Curia | 5 Dec 2023 | – | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.0 | – | 4.6 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 Nov 2023 | 920 | 37.5 | 21.0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 6 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 35.9 | 27.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
Nat National · Lab Labour · Grn Green · ACT ACT · NZF NZ First · TPM Te Pāti Māori · Opp Opportunity · Oth Other