Updated 22 October 2026 at 2:23 pm · 16 days to election day · 10,000 simulations

Scenarios

What if the polls are wrong, or one party has a better night than expected? Pick a scenario to see who could govern in the simulated elections where it happens, against the forecast.

If the polls are off

If the polls miss like 2014

NZ First +6.6, National −3.8 and ACT +3.2 points compared with the forecast.

A full re-run of 10,000 simulations.

Poll-miss scenarios re-run the whole forecast with the polls shifted, so all 10,000 simulations count. The others pick out the simulations where something happens, so fewer match.

Who can form a government

The scenario's chances, with the forecast's struck through where they differ.

  • 70% 99% National, ACT and NZ First govern alone
  • 28% <1% Opportunity holds the balance
  • 2% <1% Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori govern alone

Stalemate, where no side has a majority even with Opportunity: <1%

The Parliaments where it happens

Tap a column to see that Parliament.

Each thin column is one simulated Parliament, stacked by party and centred on the middle of its House. The solid line through the middle is a majority. The dashed lines mark a 120-seat House, so a Parliament that reaches past them has overhang seats. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys to look at one. To zoom in, drag across the ribbon (on a phone, turn on Zoom first) or press + and −. Esc or Reset zoom takes you back out.

Seats by party

Party Forecast Scenario Change
National 42 36–47 4134–46 −1
Labour 34 30–39 3127–36 −3
Green 18 15–21 1513–18 −3
ACT 11 10–14 1613–19 +5
NZ First 13 11–16 2218–26 +9
Te Pāti Māori 3 2–4 33–5 0
Opportunity 8 0–9 00–7 −8

Most likely seats, with the range they fall in four times out of five.