Updated 22 October 2026 at 2:23 pm · 16 days to election day · 10,000 simulations

Electorates · Māori electorate

Te Tai Tonga

Toss-up (the sitting MP is standing as an independent)

Who wins

Mananui Ramsden (Labour) has a 52% chance of winning Te Tai Tonga.

  • Mananui Ramsden Labour
    52% Not on a list
  • Lisa Te Morenga Green
    30% #46 on the list · 0% via the list
  • Tākuta Ferris Independent
    14%
  • Lisa Marie Murch Te Pāti Māori
    4% Not on a list

The bar is each candidate's chance of winning the seat. A candidate who loses the seat can still get into Parliament on their party's list; the list chance is how often that happens.

How close

In our central forecast, Labour leads Green by about 11 points, so a swing of 5.6 points to Green would tie it.

Lead
11 points
Typical winning margin
about 14 points (usually between 2 and 36)
Swing to tie
5.6 points
Rating
Toss-up
Ranking
2nd closest of 71

The lead is the gap between the top two candidates in our central forecast. The typical winning margin is the other way of looking at it: in a typical simulation the winner is ahead by this much, whoever wins. The range covers eight in ten simulations. The rating and how close the seat is come from the favourite's chance across the simulations: a toss-up under 60%, leans under 75%, likely under 95%, safe from 95%.

Different from the country?

Is estimated to vote about 12 points more Te Pāti Māori than the country. It has voted more Te Pāti Māori than the country at every election since 2008.

Every past figure for this electorate is recalculated for this election's boundaries from the voting-place results of that election, so each year covers the same area. Its 2026 figures are an estimate: this seat's 2023 vote, moved by each party's national change. The whole-country view shows each result and the 2026 forecast. Open circles and dotted lines are our 2026 estimate; the bars show its likely range.

In context

Te Tai Tonga is outlined. Labour is favoured here, and it's the 2nd closest seat in the country.

AucklandWellingtonChristchurchMāori electoratesAuckland Central: Likely Green (wins in 84% of simulations).GrnBanks Peninsula: Toss-up. National wins in 59% of simulations.NatBotany: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatChristchurch Central: Likely Labour (wins in 86% of simulations).LabChristchurch East: Safe Labour (wins in 96% of simulations).LabCoromandel: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatDunedin: Safe Labour (wins in 96% of simulations).LabEast Cape: Likely National (wins in 80% of simulations).NatEast Coast Bays: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatEpsom: Leans ACT (wins in 68% of simulations).ACTGlendene: Safe Labour (wins in 95% of simulations).LabHamilton East: Likely National (wins in 85% of simulations).NatHamilton West: Likely National (wins in 91% of simulations).NatHauraki-Waikato: Toss-up. Te Pāti Māori wins in 57% of simulations.TPMHenderson: Likely Labour (wins in 91% of simulations).LabHutt South: Leans National (wins in 63% of simulations).NatIkaroa-Rāwhiti: Likely Labour (wins in 81% of simulations).LabIlam: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatInvercargill: Safe National (wins in 97% of simulations).NatKaikōura: Safe National (wins in 97% of simulations).NatKaipara ki Mahurangi: Safe National (wins in 99% of simulations).NatKapiti: Likely National (wins in 75% of simulations).NatKenepuru: Safe Labour (wins in 97% of simulations).LabManurewa: Safe Labour (wins in >99% of simulations).LabMaungakiekie: Likely National (wins in 78% of simulations).NatMount Maunganui: Safe National (wins in 99% of simulations).NatMt Albert: Likely Labour (wins in 90% of simulations).LabMt Roskill: Likely National (wins in 79% of simulations).NatMāngere: Safe Labour (wins in >99% of simulations).LabNapier: Likely National (wins in 93% of simulations).NatNelson: Likely Labour (wins in 89% of simulations).LabNew Plymouth: Likely National (wins in 90% of simulations).NatNorth Shore: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatNorthcote: Likely National (wins in 94% of simulations).NatNorthland: Likely National (wins in 84% of simulations).NatPakuranga: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatPalmerston North: Likely Labour (wins in 89% of simulations).LabPapakura: Safe National (wins in 95% of simulations).NatPort Waikato: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatRangitata: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatRangitīkei: Likely National (wins in 93% of simulations).NatRemutaka: Safe Labour (wins in 99% of simulations).LabRotorua: Safe National (wins in 95% of simulations).NatSelwyn: Safe National (wins in 99% of simulations).NatSouthland: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatTaieri: Likely Labour (wins in 93% of simulations).LabTakanini: Likely National (wins in 92% of simulations).NatTaranaki-King Country: Safe National (wins in 99% of simulations).NatTaupō: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatTauranga: Safe National (wins in 98% of simulations).NatTe Tai Hauāuru: Likely Te Pāti Māori (wins in 88% of simulations).TPMTe Tai Tokerau: Leans Labour (wins in 62% of simulations).LabTukituki: Likely National (wins in 94% of simulations).NatTāmaki: Toss-up. National wins in 47% of simulations.NatTāmaki Makaurau: Toss-up. Labour wins in 59% of simulations.LabUpper Harbour: Safe National (wins in 98% of simulations).NatWaiariki: Safe Te Pāti Māori (wins in 95% of simulations).TPMWaikato: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatWaimakariri: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatWairarapa: Likely National (wins in 79% of simulations).NatWaitaki: Safe National (wins in 97% of simulations).NatWaitākere: Toss-up. Labour wins in 58% of simulations.LabWellington Bays: Leans Green (wins in 72% of simulations).GrnWellington North: Leans Green (wins in 70% of simulations).GrnWest Coast-Tasman: Toss-up. National wins in 56% of simulations.NatWhanganui: Likely National (wins in 86% of simulations).NatWhangaparāoa: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatWhangārei: Likely National (wins in 91% of simulations).NatWigram: Leans Labour (wins in 71% of simulations).LabŌtāhuhu: Safe Labour (wins in >99% of simulations).LabTe Tai Tonga: Toss-up. Labour wins in 52% of simulations.Lab
  • National
  • Labour
  • Green
  • ACT
  • Te Pāti Māori

One hexagon per electorate, placed roughly where it is. The colour is the party favoured to win it; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.