New Zealand election, 7 November 2026
National, ACT and NZ First are favoured to win a majority, but there's a real chance Opportunity holds the balance.
Updated 26 October 2026 at 7:21 am · 12 days to election day · 10,000 simulations
Who can form a government
In our 10,000 simulated elections:
- 60% National, ACT and NZ First have a majority
- 38% Opportunity holds the balance
- 2% Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have a majority
Too few simulations match to give odds.
A side has a majority when its parties hold more than half of the House, overhang seats included. Opportunity holds the balance when neither side has a majority without it.
Ten thousand Parliaments
See how it works →Tap a column to see that Parliament.
Where the polls have been
In our polling average, National is on 28.1% and Labour is on 27.8%.
Polling average now
| Party | Average | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| National | 28.1% | 27.0–29.2 |
| Labour | 27.8% | 26.7–28.9 |
| Green | 14.3% | 13.7–15.1 |
| NZ First | 10.4% | 9.6–11.2 |
| ACT | 9.4% | 8.8–9.9 |
| Opportunity | 6.5% | 5.8–7.1 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.8% | 1.6–2.1 |
Seats by party
Most likely, National wins 41 seats and Labour wins 34. Opportunity makes it into Parliament in 95% of simulations.
Who's in and who's out
What the simulations say about who makes it into Parliament.
Ministers likely to lose their seats
2
Nicola Willis (Finance) is out in 92% of simulations and Paul Goldsmith (Justice) in 90%.
Biggest scalps
92%
National: Nicola Willis (Finance), out in 92%. Labour: Deborah Russell (shadow Revenue), out in 81%.
New faces
35
New MPs we expect on average: people who aren't sitting MPs now.
No list seats for National
92%
National wins so many electorates that it gets no list seats in 92% of simulations, so in those its list-only candidates, including Nicola Willis (#2), miss out.
The list cutoff
Lab #20 · Grn #17 · NZF #12
The lowest-placed candidates who are more likely than not to get in on the list rather than by winning a seat: Chris Flatt (Labour #20), Bhen Goodsir (Green #17) and David Wilson (NZ First #12).
Overhang
97%
The share of simulations in which Parliament grows past 120 seats.
What if…
Right now, National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of simulations. Each card shows how that chance moves if the polls are wrong or the race changes, and a couple show how the chance that Opportunity holds the balance moves.
If the polls miss like 2014
▲ 60% → 96%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 96%.
Labour are the largest party
▼ 60% → 4%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 4%.
Opportunity enter Parliament
▲ 38% → 40%
The chance that Opportunity holds the balance of power rises from 38% to 40%.
If National gains 3 points
▲ 60% → 78%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 78%.
If the polls miss like 2020
▼ 60% → 13%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 13%.
National are the largest party
▲ 60% → 71%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 71%.
If Labour gains 3 points
▼ 60% → 34%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 34%.
If the polls miss like 2017
▲ 60% → 68%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 68%.
Electorates
National is ahead in 40 of the 71 electorates, Labour in 18, Green in 3, Te Pāti Māori in 3, ACT in 2, and 5 are toss-ups, including West Coast-Tasman and Hauraki-Waikato.
- National
- Labour
- Green
- ACT
- Te Pāti Māori
One hexagon per electorate, placed roughly where it is. The colour is the party favoured to win it; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.
- National
- Labour
- Green
- ACT
- Te Pāti Māori
Each electorate on this election's boundaries. Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch are drawn larger at the top left, and the seven Māori electorates, which overlap the general ones, as a smaller copy of the country at the bottom right. The colour is the party favoured to win; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.
Left bloc favoured in 27 seats, 3 of them toss-ups; right bloc in 44, 2 toss-ups. Each side runs from its toss-ups to its safe seats; paler means closer.
Left bloc seats 27
Toss-up 3
Leans 3
Likely 12
- Christchurch Central Labour 82%
- Tāmaki Makaurau Te Pāti Māori 83%
- Wellington North Green 83%
- Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Labour 83%
- Te Tai Hauāuru Te Pāti Māori 86%
- Mt Albert Labour 87%
- Wellington Bays Green 88%
- Nelson Labour 89%
- Henderson Labour 89%
- Taieri Labour 92%
- Palmerston North Labour 93%
- Glendene Labour 94%
Safe 9
Right bloc seats 44
Toss-up 2
Leans 6
- Tāmaki ACT 68%
- Northland National 70%
- Wairarapa National 70%
- East Cape National 73%
- Mt Roskill National 73%
- Kapiti National 74%
Likely 12
- Maungakiekie National 76%
- Hamilton East National 83%
- Whanganui National 85%
- New Plymouth National 85%
- Whangārei National 89%
- Hamilton West National 90%
- Takanini National 91%
- Rangitīkei National 92%
- Napier National 94%
- Epsom ACT 94%
- Papakura National 94%
- Northcote National 94%
Safe 24
- Tukituki National 95%
- Rotorua National 96%
- Rangitata National 96%
- Invercargill National 96%
- Port Waikato National 96%
- Tauranga National 96%
- Waimakariri National 96%
- Kaikōura National 97%
- Ilam National 97%
- Waitaki National 98%
- Taranaki-King Country National 98%
- Mount Maunganui National 98%
- Upper Harbour National 99%
- Selwyn National >99%
- Kaipara ki Mahurangi National >99%
- Southland National >99%
- Waikato National >99%
- Taupō National >99%
- Coromandel National >99%
- North Shore National >99%
- Botany National >99%
- Pakuranga National >99%
- East Coast Bays National >99%
- Whangaparāoa National >99%
Estimated change in the party vote since 2023
← Towards the leftTowards the right →
How far each seat's balance between the left and right blocs has moved. The colours are fullest at 15 points or more; grey means little change.
- Toss-up
- Leans
- Likely
- Safe
The deeper the orange, the surer the favourite is of winning the seat, whichever party that is.