Updated 26 October 2026 at 7:21 am · 12 days to election day · 10,000 simulations

One Parliament, then ten thousand

In 60% of our 10,000 Parliaments, the current coalition of National, ACT and NZ First wins a majority of the seats, so it can govern without Opportunity. Here's how we get those odds.

  1. This election, based on the polls, the party vote could look like this.

    National gets 27.6% of the party vote, Labour 26.4% and Green 15.6%.

    National27.6%Labour26.4%Green15.6%NZ First10.9%ACT9.6%Opportunity6.6%Te Pāti Māori1.6%Other1.6%

  2. And 71 electorate races.

    National wins 40 of the 71 electorates, Labour 21, Green 4, Te Pāti Māori 3 and ACT 2.

    AucklandWellingtonChristchurchMāori electoratesAuckland Central: won by Green in this simulationGrnBanks Peninsula: won by Labour in this simulationLabBotany: won by National in this simulationNatChristchurch Central: won by Labour in this simulationLabChristchurch East: won by Labour in this simulationLabCoromandel: won by National in this simulationNatDunedin: won by Green in this simulationGrnEast Cape: won by Labour in this simulationLabEast Coast Bays: won by National in this simulationNatEpsom: won by ACT in this simulationACTGlendene: won by Labour in this simulationLabHamilton East: won by National in this simulationNatHamilton West: won by National in this simulationNatHauraki-Waikato: won by Labour in this simulationLabHenderson: won by Labour in this simulationLabHutt South: won by Labour in this simulationLabIkaroa-Rāwhiti: won by Labour in this simulationLabIlam: won by National in this simulationNatInvercargill: won by National in this simulationNatKaikōura: won by National in this simulationNatKaipara ki Mahurangi: won by National in this simulationNatKapiti: won by Labour in this simulationLabKenepuru: won by Labour in this simulationLabManurewa: won by Labour in this simulationLabMaungakiekie: won by National in this simulationNatMount Maunganui: won by National in this simulationNatMt Albert: won by Green in this simulationGrnMt Roskill: won by National in this simulationNatMāngere: won by Labour in this simulationLabNapier: won by National in this simulationNatNelson: won by Labour in this simulationLabNew Plymouth: won by National in this simulationNatNorth Shore: won by National in this simulationNatNorthcote: won by National in this simulationNatNorthland: won by National in this simulationNatPakuranga: won by National in this simulationNatPalmerston North: won by Labour in this simulationLabPapakura: won by National in this simulationNatPort Waikato: won by National in this simulationNatRangitata: won by National in this simulationNatRangitīkei: won by National in this simulationNatRemutaka: won by Labour in this simulationLabRotorua: won by National in this simulationNatSelwyn: won by National in this simulationNatSouthland: won by National in this simulationNatTaieri: won by Labour in this simulationLabTakanini: won by National in this simulationNatTaranaki-King Country: won by National in this simulationNatTaupō: won by National in this simulationNatTauranga: won by National in this simulationNatTe Tai Hauāuru: won by Te Pāti Māori in this simulationTPMTe Tai Tokerau: won by Labour in this simulationLabTe Tai Tonga: won by Labour in this simulationLabTukituki: won by National in this simulationNatTāmaki: won by ACT in this simulationACTTāmaki Makaurau: won by Te Pāti Māori in this simulationTPMUpper Harbour: won by National in this simulationNatWaiariki: won by Te Pāti Māori in this simulationTPMWaikato: won by National in this simulationNatWaimakariri: won by National in this simulationNatWairarapa: won by National in this simulationNatWaitaki: won by National in this simulationNatWaitākere: won by National in this simulationNatWellington Bays: won by Green in this simulationGrnWellington North: won by Labour in this simulationLabWest Coast-Tasman: won by Other in this simulationOthWhanganui: won by National in this simulationNatWhangaparāoa: won by National in this simulationNatWhangārei: won by National in this simulationNatWigram: won by National in this simulationNatŌtāhuhu: won by Labour in this simulationLab

  3. That gives this Parliament.

    One dot per seat: 127 of them. National and Te Pāti Māori won more electorates than their party vote is worth, so the House grows by 7. The ringed seats are the extras. Solid dots won an electorate; dots with a hole came off the list.

    127 seats: 120 plus 7 overhanghalfway

  4. Straighten it out.

    Stand the seats in one column, with the left at the bottom, centred on the middle of the House. The solid line is a majority; the dashed lines mark the ends of a 120-seat House. Solid slices won an electorate; slices with a light stripe came off the list.

    majority120 seatsTe Pāti Māori 3Green 19Labour 32Opportunity 8NZ First 13National 40ACT 12

  5. Who can govern?

    National, ACT and NZ First have 65 of the 127 seats, a majority, so they can govern without Opportunity.

    A side has a majority when its seats reach past the line.

    majority120 seatsTe Pāti Māori 3Green 19Labour 32Opportunity 8NZ First 13National 40ACT 12The right: 65 of 127a majority

  6. Now do it 10,000 times.

    Every simulation gives its own Parliament. Line up all 10,000, from the most left-leaning to the most right-leaning, and ours is one thin column among them. National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of them.

    Left Opp. decides Stalemate Right ▲ this one

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