In 1999, 81% of voters asked for a smaller Parliament. We built ten thousand of them instead. Sorry.

Updated 23 October 2026 at 5:41 pm · 15 days to election day · 10,000 simulations

New Zealand election, 7 November 2026

National, ACT and NZ First are favoured to win a majority, but there's a real chance Opportunity holds the balance.

Right has a majority 60% · Opportunity decides 38% · Left has a majority 2% · Stalemate <1%

One Parliament, then ten thousand

In 60% of our 10,000 Parliaments, the current coalition of National, ACT and NZ First wins a majority of the seats, so it can govern without Opportunity. Here's how we get those odds.

  1. This election, based on the polls, the party vote could look like this.

    National gets 27.6% of the party vote, Labour 26.4% and Green 15.6%.

    National27.6%Labour26.4%Green15.6%NZ First10.9%ACT9.6%Opportunity6.6%Te Pāti Māori1.6%Other1.6%

  2. And 71 electorate races.

    National wins 40 of the 71 electorates, Labour 21, Green 4, Te Pāti Māori 3 and ACT 2.

    AucklandWellingtonChristchurchMāori electoratesAuckland Central: won by Green in this simulationGrnBanks Peninsula: won by Labour in this simulationLabBotany: won by National in this simulationNatChristchurch Central: won by Labour in this simulationLabChristchurch East: won by Labour in this simulationLabCoromandel: won by National in this simulationNatDunedin: won by Green in this simulationGrnEast Cape: won by Labour in this simulationLabEast Coast Bays: won by National in this simulationNatEpsom: won by ACT in this simulationACTGlendene: won by Labour in this simulationLabHamilton East: won by National in this simulationNatHamilton West: won by National in this simulationNatHauraki-Waikato: won by Labour in this simulationLabHenderson: won by Labour in this simulationLabHutt South: won by Labour in this simulationLabIkaroa-Rāwhiti: won by Labour in this simulationLabIlam: won by National in this simulationNatInvercargill: won by National in this simulationNatKaikōura: won by National in this simulationNatKaipara ki Mahurangi: won by National in this simulationNatKapiti: won by Labour in this simulationLabKenepuru: won by Labour in this simulationLabManurewa: won by Labour in this simulationLabMaungakiekie: won by National in this simulationNatMount Maunganui: won by National in this simulationNatMt Albert: won by Green in this simulationGrnMt Roskill: won by National in this simulationNatMāngere: won by Labour in this simulationLabNapier: won by National in this simulationNatNelson: won by Labour in this simulationLabNew Plymouth: won by National in this simulationNatNorth Shore: won by National in this simulationNatNorthcote: won by National in this simulationNatNorthland: won by National in this simulationNatPakuranga: won by National in this simulationNatPalmerston North: won by Labour in this simulationLabPapakura: won by National in this simulationNatPort Waikato: won by National in this simulationNatRangitata: won by National in this simulationNatRangitīkei: won by National in this simulationNatRemutaka: won by Labour in this simulationLabRotorua: won by National in this simulationNatSelwyn: won by National in this simulationNatSouthland: won by National in this simulationNatTaieri: won by Labour in this simulationLabTakanini: won by National in this simulationNatTaranaki-King Country: won by National in this simulationNatTaupō: won by National in this simulationNatTauranga: won by National in this simulationNatTe Tai Hauāuru: won by Te Pāti Māori in this simulationTPMTe Tai Tokerau: won by Labour in this simulationLabTe Tai Tonga: won by Labour in this simulationLabTukituki: won by National in this simulationNatTāmaki: won by ACT in this simulationACTTāmaki Makaurau: won by Te Pāti Māori in this simulationTPMUpper Harbour: won by National in this simulationNatWaiariki: won by Te Pāti Māori in this simulationTPMWaikato: won by National in this simulationNatWaimakariri: won by National in this simulationNatWairarapa: won by National in this simulationNatWaitaki: won by National in this simulationNatWaitākere: won by National in this simulationNatWellington Bays: won by Green in this simulationGrnWellington North: won by Labour in this simulationLabWest Coast-Tasman: won by Other in this simulationOthWhanganui: won by National in this simulationNatWhangaparāoa: won by National in this simulationNatWhangārei: won by National in this simulationNatWigram: won by National in this simulationNatŌtāhuhu: won by Labour in this simulationLab

  3. That gives this Parliament.

    One dot per seat: 127 of them. National and Te Pāti Māori won more electorates than their party vote is worth, so the House grows by 7. The ringed seats are the extras. Solid dots won an electorate; dots with a hole came off the list.

    127 seats: 120 plus 7 overhanghalfway

  4. Straighten it out.

    Stand the seats in one column, with the left at the bottom, centred on the middle of the House. The solid line is a majority; the dashed lines mark the ends of a 120-seat House. Solid slices won an electorate; slices with a light stripe came off the list.

    majority120 seatsTe Pāti Māori 3Green 19Labour 32Opportunity 8NZ First 13National 40ACT 12

  5. Who can govern?

    National, ACT and NZ First have 65 of the 127 seats, a majority, so they can govern without Opportunity.

    A side has a majority when its seats reach past the line.

    majority120 seatsTe Pāti Māori 3Green 19Labour 32Opportunity 8NZ First 13National 40ACT 12The right: 65 of 127a majority

  6. Now do it 10,000 times.

    Every simulation gives its own Parliament. Line up all 10,000, from the most left-leaning to the most right-leaning, and ours is one thin column among them. National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of them.

    Left Opp. decides Stalemate Right ▲ this one

Ten thousand Parliaments

Here they all are, lined up from the most left-leaning to the most right-leaning. The line through the middle is a majority. The right has a majority in 60% of them: the ones at the right-hand end, where its colours reach past that line. Where a column pokes past the dashed lines, that Parliament has overhang seats.

Tap a column to see that Parliament.

Each thin column is one simulated Parliament, stacked by party and centred on the middle of its House. The solid line through the middle is a majority. The dashed lines mark a 120-seat House, so a Parliament that reaches past them has overhang seats. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys to look at one. To zoom in, drag across the ribbon (on a phone, turn on Zoom first) or press + and −. Esc or Reset zoom takes you back out.

↺ Replay the story

Who can form a government

National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of the 10,000 simulated elections. In 38%, Opportunity holds the balance.

  • 60% National, ACT and NZ First have a majority
  • 38% Opportunity holds the balance
  • 2% Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have a majority

Stalemate, where no side has a majority even with Opportunity: <1%

A side has a majority when its parties hold more than half of the House, overhang seats included. Opportunity holds the balance when neither side has a majority without it.

Seats by party

Most likely, National wins 41 seats and Labour wins 34. Opportunity makes it into Parliament in 95% of simulations.

Dots show each party's most likely number of seats. Bars show the range it falls in four times out of five.

Where the polls have been

In our polling average, National is on 28.1% and Labour is on 27.8%.

Since the 2023 election. Dots are individual polls. Lines show the polling average, and shading shows how sure we are of it.

Polling average now

PartyLikely range
National 27.0–29.2
Labour 26.7–28.9
Green 13.7–15.1
NZ First 9.6–11.2
ACT 8.8–9.9
Opportunity 5.8–7.1
Te Pāti Māori 1.6–2.1

Every poll, and the left and right over time →

Who's in and who's out

What the simulations say about who makes it into Parliament.

Ministers likely to lose their seats

2

Nicola Willis (Finance) is out in 92% of simulations and Paul Goldsmith (Justice) in 90%.

Biggest scalps

92%

National: Nicola Willis (Finance), out in 92%. Labour: Deborah Russell (shadow Revenue), out in 81%.

New faces

35

New MPs we expect on average: people who aren't sitting MPs now.

No list seats for Te Pāti Māori

94%

Te Pāti Māori wins so many electorates that it gets no list seats in 94% of simulations, so in those its list-only candidates, including Lance Norman (#1), miss out.

The list cutoff

Lab #20 · Grn #17 · NZF #12

The lowest-placed candidates who are more likely than not to get in on the list rather than by winning a seat: Chris Flatt (Labour #20), Bhen Goodsir (Green #17) and David Wilson (NZ First #12).

Overhang

97%

The share of simulations in which Parliament grows past 120 seats.

What if…

Right now, National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of simulations. Each card shows how that chance moves if the polls are wrong or the race changes, and a couple show how the chance that Opportunity holds the balance moves.

If the polls miss like 2014

▲ 60% → 99%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 99%.

Labour are the largest party

▼ 60% → 4%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 4%.

If the polls miss like 2023

▲ 38% → 45%

The chance that Opportunity holds the balance of power rises from 38% to 45%.

If National gains 3 points

▲ 60% → 78%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 78%.

If the polls miss like 2020

▼ 60% → 11%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 11%.

Opportunity enter Parliament

▲ 38% → 40%

The chance that Opportunity holds the balance of power rises from 38% to 40%.

National are the largest party

▲ 60% → 71%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 71%.

If the polls miss like 2017

▼ 60% → 27%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 27%.

Electorates

National is ahead in 40 of the 71 electorates, Labour in 18, Green in 3, Te Pāti Māori in 3, ACT in 2, and 5 are toss-ups, including West Coast-Tasman and Hauraki-Waikato.

Press Enter to open the first match. Macrons are optional.

AucklandWellingtonChristchurchMāori electoratesAuckland Central: Safe Green (wins in 97% of simulations).GrnBanks Peninsula: Toss-up. National wins in 55% of simulations.NatBotany: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatChristchurch Central: Likely Labour (wins in 82% of simulations).LabChristchurch East: Safe Labour (wins in 95% of simulations).LabCoromandel: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatDunedin: Safe Labour (wins in 96% of simulations).LabEast Cape: Leans National (wins in 73% of simulations).NatEast Coast Bays: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatEpsom: Likely ACT (wins in 94% of simulations).ACTGlendene: Likely Labour (wins in 94% of simulations).LabHamilton East: Likely National (wins in 83% of simulations).NatHamilton West: Likely National (wins in 90% of simulations).NatHauraki-Waikato: Toss-up. Te Pāti Māori wins in 54% of simulations.TPMHenderson: Likely Labour (wins in 89% of simulations).LabHutt South: Toss-up. National wins in 59% of simulations.NatIkaroa-Rāwhiti: Likely Labour (wins in 83% of simulations).LabIlam: Safe National (wins in 97% of simulations).NatInvercargill: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatKaikōura: Safe National (wins in 97% of simulations).NatKaipara ki Mahurangi: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatKapiti: Leans National (wins in 74% of simulations).NatKenepuru: Safe Labour (wins in 98% of simulations).LabManurewa: Safe Labour (wins in >99% of simulations).LabMaungakiekie: Likely National (wins in 76% of simulations).NatMount Maunganui: Safe National (wins in 98% of simulations).NatMt Albert: Likely Labour (wins in 87% of simulations).LabMt Roskill: Leans National (wins in 73% of simulations).NatMāngere: Safe Labour (wins in 100% of simulations).LabNapier: Likely National (wins in 94% of simulations).NatNelson: Likely Labour (wins in 89% of simulations).LabNew Plymouth: Likely National (wins in 85% of simulations).NatNorth Shore: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatNorthcote: Likely National (wins in 94% of simulations).NatNorthland: Leans National (wins in 70% of simulations).NatPakuranga: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatPalmerston North: Likely Labour (wins in 93% of simulations).LabPapakura: Likely National (wins in 94% of simulations).NatPort Waikato: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatRangitata: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatRangitīkei: Likely National (wins in 92% of simulations).NatRemutaka: Safe Labour (wins in 99% of simulations).LabRotorua: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatSelwyn: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatSouthland: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatTaieri: Likely Labour (wins in 92% of simulations).LabTakanini: Likely National (wins in 91% of simulations).NatTaranaki-King Country: Safe National (wins in 98% of simulations).NatTaupō: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatTauranga: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatTe Tai Hauāuru: Likely Te Pāti Māori (wins in 86% of simulations).TPMTe Tai Tokerau: Leans Labour (wins in 66% of simulations).LabTe Tai Tonga: Toss-up. Labour wins in 56% of simulations.LabTukituki: Safe National (wins in 95% of simulations).NatTāmaki: Leans ACT (wins in 68% of simulations).ACTTāmaki Makaurau: Likely Te Pāti Māori (wins in 83% of simulations).TPMUpper Harbour: Safe National (wins in 99% of simulations).NatWaiariki: Safe Te Pāti Māori (wins in 95% of simulations).TPMWaikato: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatWaimakariri: Safe National (wins in 96% of simulations).NatWairarapa: Leans National (wins in 70% of simulations).NatWaitaki: Safe National (wins in 98% of simulations).NatWaitākere: Leans Labour (wins in 66% of simulations).LabWellington Bays: Likely Green (wins in 88% of simulations).GrnWellington North: Likely Green (wins in 83% of simulations).GrnWest Coast-Tasman: Toss-up. Labour wins in 46% of simulations.LabWhanganui: Likely National (wins in 85% of simulations).NatWhangaparāoa: Safe National (wins in >99% of simulations).NatWhangārei: Likely National (wins in 89% of simulations).NatWigram: Leans Labour (wins in 63% of simulations).LabŌtāhuhu: Safe Labour (wins in >99% of simulations).Lab
  • National
  • Labour
  • Green
  • ACT
  • Te Pāti Māori

One hexagon per electorate, placed roughly where it is. The colour is the party favoured to win it; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.

All 71 electorates, closest first →