New Zealand election, 7 November 2026
National, ACT and NZ First are favoured to win a majority, but there's a real chance Opportunity holds the balance.
Who can form a government: Right has a majority 60% · Opportunity decides 38% · Left has a majority 2% · Stalemate <1%
Who can form a government
National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of the 10,000 simulated elections. In 38%, Opportunity holds the balance.
- 60% National, ACT and NZ First have a majority
- 38% Opportunity holds the balance
- 2% Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have a majority
Stalemate, where no side has a majority even with Opportunity: <1%
Too few simulations match to give odds.
A side has a majority when its parties hold more than half of the House, overhang seats included. Opportunity holds the balance when neither side has a majority without it.
Ten thousand Parliaments
Tap a column to see that Parliament.
What am I looking at?
Each column is one simulated Parliament, lined up from the most left-leaning to the most right-leaning. The line through the middle is a majority. The right has a majority in 60% of them: the ones at the right-hand end, where its colours reach past that line. Where a column pokes past the dashed lines, that Parliament has overhang seats.
Seats by party
Most likely, National wins 41 seats and Labour wins 34. Opportunity makes it into Parliament in 95% of simulations.
Where the polls have been
In our polling average, National is on 28.1% and Labour is on 27.8%.
Polling average now
| Party | Average | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| National | 28.1% | 27.0–29.2 |
| Labour | 27.8% | 26.7–28.8 |
| Green | 14.4% | 13.7–15.2 |
| NZ First | 10.4% | 9.6–11.2 |
| ACT | 9.4% | 8.8–9.9 |
| Opportunity | 6.4% | 5.8–7.1 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.8% | 1.6–2.1 |
Who's in and who's out
What the simulations say about who makes it into Parliament.
Ministers likely to lose their seats
2
Nicola Willis (Finance) is out in 92% of simulations and Paul Goldsmith (Justice) in 91%.
Biggest scalps
92%
National: Nicola Willis (Finance), out in 92%. Labour: Deborah Russell (shadow Revenue), out in 81%.
New faces
35
New MPs we expect on average: people who aren't sitting MPs now.
No list seats for Te Pāti Māori
94%
Te Pāti Māori wins so many electorates that it gets no list seats in 94% of simulations, so in those its list-only candidates, including Lance Norman (#1), miss out.
The list cutoff
Lab #20 · Grn #17 · NZF #12
The lowest-placed candidates who are more likely than not to get in on the list rather than by winning a seat: Chris Flatt (Labour #20), Bhen Goodsir (Green #17) and David Wilson (NZ First #12).
Overhang
97%
The share of simulations in which Parliament grows past 120 seats.
What if…
Right now, National, ACT and NZ First have a majority in 60% of simulations. Each card shows how that chance moves if the polls are wrong or the race changes, and a couple show how the chance that Opportunity holds the balance moves.
If the polls miss like 2014
▲ 60% → 96%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 96%.
Labour are the largest party
▼ 60% → 3%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 3%.
Opportunity enter Parliament
▲ 38% → 40%
The chance that Opportunity holds the balance of power rises from 38% to 40%.
If National gains 3 points
▲ 60% → 78%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 78%.
If the polls miss like 2020
▼ 60% → 13%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 13%.
National are the largest party
▲ 60% → 72%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 72%.
If Labour gains 3 points
▼ 60% → 34%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority falls from 60% to 34%.
If the polls miss like 2017
▲ 60% → 68%
National, ACT and NZ First's chance of a majority rises from 60% to 68%.
Electorates
National is ahead in 41 of the 71 electorates, Labour in 18, Green in 3, Te Pāti Māori in 3, ACT in 2, and 4 are toss-ups, including West Coast-Tasman and Hauraki-Waikato.
- National
- Labour
- Green
- ACT
- Te Pāti Māori
One hexagon per electorate, placed roughly where it is. The colour is the party favoured to win it; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.
- National
- Labour
- Green
- ACT
- Te Pāti Māori
Each electorate on this election's boundaries. Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch are drawn larger at the top left, and the seven Māori electorates, which overlap the general ones, as a smaller copy of the country at the bottom right. The colour is the party favoured to win; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.
Left bloc favoured in 27 seats, 3 of them toss-ups; right bloc in 44, 1 toss-up. Each side runs from its toss-ups to its safe seats; paler means closer.
Left bloc seats 27
Toss-up 3
Leans 3
Likely 12
- Christchurch Central Labour 82%
- Wellington North Green 83%
- Tāmaki Makaurau Te Pāti Māori 83%
- Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Labour 83%
- Te Tai Hauāuru Te Pāti Māori 86%
- Mt Albert Labour 87%
- Wellington Bays Green 88%
- Nelson Labour 89%
- Henderson Labour 89%
- Taieri Labour 92%
- Palmerston North Labour 93%
- Glendene Labour 94%
Safe 9
Right bloc seats 44
Toss-up 1
Leans 7
- Hutt South National 60%
- Tāmaki ACT 69%
- Northland National 70%
- Wairarapa National 70%
- East Cape National 73%
- Mt Roskill National 73%
- Kapiti National 74%
Likely 11
- Maungakiekie National 76%
- Hamilton East National 83%
- Whanganui National 85%
- New Plymouth National 86%
- Whangārei National 89%
- Hamilton West National 90%
- Takanini National 91%
- Rangitīkei National 93%
- Napier National 94%
- Papakura National 94%
- Epsom ACT 94%
Safe 25
- Northcote National 95%
- Tukituki National 95%
- Rotorua National 96%
- Rangitata National 96%
- Port Waikato National 96%
- Invercargill National 96%
- Waimakariri National 96%
- Tauranga National 96%
- Kaikōura National 97%
- Ilam National 97%
- Waitaki National 98%
- Mount Maunganui National 98%
- Taranaki-King Country National 99%
- Upper Harbour National 99%
- Kaipara ki Mahurangi National 99%
- Coromandel National >99%
- Selwyn National >99%
- Waikato National >99%
- Southland National >99%
- Taupō National >99%
- North Shore National >99%
- Botany National >99%
- Pakuranga National >99%
- East Coast Bays National >99%
- Whangaparāoa National >99%
Estimated change in the party vote since 2023
← Towards the leftTowards the right →
How far each seat's balance between the left and right blocs has moved. The colours are fullest at 15 points or more; grey means little change.
- Toss-up
- Leans
- Likely
- Safe
The deeper the orange, the surer the favourite is of winning the seat, whichever party that is.