Updated 22 October 2026 at 2:23 pm · 16 days to election day · 10,000 simulations

New Zealand election, 7 November 2026

National, ACT and NZ First are favoured to govern on their own, but there's a real chance Opportunity holds the balance.

Who can form a government: Right governs alone 70% · Opportunity decides 28% · Left governs alone 2% · Stalemate <1%

One Parliament, then ten thousand

Here's one way the election could go.

National gets 28.9% of the party vote, Labour 26.1% and Green 15.0%.
And 71 electorate races.

National wins 42 of the 71 electorates, Labour 22, Green 3, Te Pāti Māori 3 and ACT 1.
That gives this Parliament.

One dot per seat: 127 of them. National won more electorates than its party vote is worth, so the House grows by 7. The ringed seats are the extras. Solid dots won an electorate; dots with a hole came off the list.
Straighten it out.

Stand the seats in one column, with the left at the bottom, centred on the middle of the House. The solid line is a majority; the dashed lines mark the ends of a 120-seat House. Solid slices won an electorate; slices with a light stripe came off the list.
Who can govern?

National, ACT and NZ First have 66 of the 127 seats: they govern alone.

A side governs alone when its seats reach past the line.
Now do it 10,000 times.

Every simulation gives its own Parliament. Line up all 10,000, from the most left-leaning to the most right-leaning, and ours is one thin column among them. National, ACT and NZ First govern alone in 70% of them.

Ten thousand Parliaments

Here they all are, lined up from the most left-leaning to the most right-leaning. The line through the middle is a majority. The right governs alone in 70% of them: the ones at the right-hand end, where its colours reach past that line. Where a column pokes past the dashed lines, that Parliament has overhang seats.

Tap a column to see that Parliament.

Each thin column is one simulated Parliament, stacked by party and centred on the middle of its House. The solid line through the middle is a majority. The dashed lines mark a 120-seat House, so a Parliament that reaches past them has overhang seats. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys to look at one. To zoom in, drag across the ribbon (on a phone, turn on Zoom first) or press + and −. Esc or Reset zoom takes you back out.

↺ Replay the story

Who can form a government

National, ACT and NZ First govern alone in 70% of the 10,000 simulated elections. In 28%, Opportunity holds the balance.

70% National, ACT and NZ First govern alone
28% Opportunity holds the balance
2% Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori govern alone

Stalemate, where no side has a majority even with Opportunity: <1%

A side governs alone when its parties hold a majority of the House, overhang seats included. Opportunity holds the balance when neither side has a majority without it.

Seats by party

Most likely, National wins 42 seats and Labour wins 34. Opportunity makes it into Parliament in 90% of simulations.

Most likely seats for each party, with the range they fall in four times out of five: National 42 (36 to 47), Labour 34 (30 to 39), Green 18 (15 to 21), NZ First 13 (11 to 16), ACT 11 (10 to 14), Opportunity 8 (0 to 9), Te Pāti Māori 3 (2 to 4).

Dots show each party's most likely number of seats. Bars show the range it falls in four times out of five.

Where the polls have been

In our polling average, Labour is on 28.2% and National is on 27.8%.

Poll results and the polling average over time. Latest average: National 27.8%, Labour 28.2%, Green 14.2%, ACT 9.2%, NZ First 10.6%, Te Pāti Māori 1.9%, Opportunity 6.2%, Other 1.7%.

Since the 2023 election. Dots are individual polls. Lines show the polling average, and shading shows how sure we are of it.

Polling average now

Party	Average	Likely range
Labour	28.2%	27.0–29.3
National	27.8%	26.6–29.0
Green	14.2%	13.5–15.0
NZ First	10.6%	9.9–11.6
ACT	9.2%	8.6–9.8
Opportunity	6.2%	5.6–6.9
Te Pāti Māori	1.9%	1.7–2.2

Every poll, and the left and right over time →

Who's in and who's out

What the simulations say about who makes it into Parliament.

Ministers likely to lose their seats

Nicola Willis (Finance) is out in 96% of simulations and Paul Goldsmith (Justice) in 70%.

Biggest scalps

96%

National: Nicola Willis (Finance), out in 96%. Labour: Deborah Russell (shadow Revenue), out in 80%.

New faces

New MPs we expect on average: people who aren't sitting MPs now.

No list seats for National

96%

National wins so many electorates that it gets no list seats in 96% of simulations, so in those its list-only candidates, including Nicola Willis (#2), miss out.

The list cutoff

Lab #20 · Grn #17 · NZF #13

The lowest-placed candidates who are more likely than not to get in on the list rather than by winning a seat: Chris Flatt (Labour #20), Bhen Goodsir (Green #17) and Jamie Arbuckle (NZ First #13).

On the 5% line

Chance of getting into Parliament: Opportunity (90%).

Overhang

97%

The share of simulations in which Parliament grows past 120 seats.

What if…

Right now, National, ACT and NZ First govern alone in 70% of simulations. Each card shows how that chance moves if the polls are wrong or the race changes, and a couple show how the chance that Opportunity holds the balance moves.

If National gains 3 points

▲ 70% → 85%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of governing on their own rises from 70% to 85%.

Labour are the largest party

▼ 70% → 8%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of governing on their own falls from 70% to 8%.

If the polls miss like 2023

▲ 28% → 34%

The chance that Opportunity holds the balance of power rises from 28% to 34%.

National are the largest party

▲ 70% → 81%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of governing on their own rises from 70% to 81%.

If the polls miss like 2020

▼ 70% → 16%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of governing on their own falls from 70% to 16%.

Opportunity enter Parliament

▲ 28% → 31%

The chance that Opportunity holds the balance of power rises from 28% to 31%.

An overhang of at least 5 seats

▲ 70% → 75%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of governing on their own rises from 70% to 75%.

If the polls miss like 2017

▼ 70% → 33%

National, ACT and NZ First's chance of governing on their own falls from 70% to 33%.

Electorates

National is ahead in 41 of the 71 electorates, Labour in 17, Green in 3, Te Pāti Māori in 2, ACT in 1, and 7 are toss-ups, including Tāmaki and Te Tai Tonga.

National
Labour
Green
ACT
Te Pāti Māori

One hexagon per electorate, placed roughly where it is. The colour is the party favoured to win it; paler means closer. Select a seat to see its forecast.

All 71 electorates, closest first →

National, ACT and NZ First are favoured to govern on their own, but there's a real chance Opportunity holds the balance.

One Parliament, then ten thousand

Here's one way the election could go.

And 71 electorate races.

That gives this Parliament.

Straighten it out.

Who can govern?

Now do it 10,000 times.

Ten thousand Parliaments

Who can form a government

Seats by party

Where the polls have been

Polling average now

Who's in and who's out

What if…

Electorates

Left bloc seats 26

Toss-up 4

Leans 4

Likely 9

Safe 9

Right bloc seats 45

Toss-up 3

Leans 2

Likely 16

Safe 24